Mainland unemployment peak warning

Mainland unemployment peak warning

□ / Special Rapporteur By Luoke

Employment or unemployment, become China's college graduates are the biggest "questions."
"Now, this year the employment situation不比good last year." Beijing University employment guide center of the party's Director of Sinorama said.
"At present from the Chinese university students to reflect the online employment information, the severe employment situation for college students this year." Chinese University Employment Network related person in charge of day, to move the registration of enterprises and job opportunities for the students ratio is 1:10.



2008 increase in the number of unemployed, and this year highlighted the uncertain economic situation, China's unemployment peak of the flood peak reached in recent years.


Information from the Ministry of Education, this year's college graduates will reach a record 5.59 million people, more than last year 640,000 people. Of which 10 percent of the students will choose Zhuansheng Ben, the study section or studying abroad, but last year there are 700,000 to 800,000 students failed to employment, in 2008 the actual number of students who need employment in more than 6 million people. In addition, the first batch of 20,000 "three to help a" mature students this year have been waiting for the re-employment services.
"At present to college graduates as the representative of the additional labor is being replaced by laid-off workers become China's largest source of the pressure on employment one." Peking University School of Government Professor Yan Jirong said.


An unprecedentedly severe employment situation
Faced with the pressure on employment is not just college graduates. Human Resources Department of Labor and Social Security Yu-kwan, director of the Institute of Science has provided a set of data, "11th Five-Year Plan," these five years, cities and towns to jobs in each of the 24 million total, while in employment demand, according to maintain economic growth 8-9% rate, which is about 12 million people, the gap 12 million people. More importantly, there are 100 million rural ~ 150 million labor force to be transferred.
And this year's many uncertainties, the strengthening of this conflict between supply and demand.
Although the National Development and Reform Commission said in May this year, a quarter of the town to achieve more than 300 million new jobs, completed 30 percent of the annual plan, the registered urban unemployment rate was 4 percent, year-over-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points. But the fact is that the first quarter of this year GDP growth rate year-on-year drop of 1.1 percentage points.
According to the World Bank earlier estimated, in 2008 China's economic growth at about 10.8% (than before the 2007 amendments to the low growth rate of 0.6 percentage points) and has recently adjusted to 9.8 percent. Chinese Academy of Social Security Research Center Director Wang of the German Our reporter said that if the use of flexible employment in 2006, the slowdown in economic growth rate 0.6 percentage point impact on employment for 0.042 percentage point, 32 million people find jobs will be affected if the economy Growth rate of 9.8 percent, the number of people affected may be doubled.
At the same time, the appreciation of the renminbi, rise in the cost of production and declining demand, and other international factors, some export enterprises, especially small and medium enterprises and labor-intensive enterprise production and management difficulties, Guangdong, Jiangsu area of foreign trade enterprises and even the closure of influx.
Shenzhen Association of Enterprises with processing trade official said, is now about 80,000 Hong Kong enterprises, 37.3 percent are planning to move out of all or part of production capacity of the PRD, which will make for supporting the 12,000 foreign-funded enterprises in Shenzhen factories processing trade Class of business failures.
In addition, the state-owned enterprises this year is also the policy of closure of bankruptcy last year, closed and bankrupt enterprises rehousing the number of workers than in any previous year big. At the same time this year the central vigorously promote energy conservation or reducing emissions and eliminate backward production capacity of 2001.
According to the Ministry of Labour and Social Security Minister Tian Chengping recently estimated that the urban unemployed population in 2008 may exceed 50 million people, break through 200 million rural people.
To minimize the number of unemployed people, the Chinese government is scheduled in early 2008 the employment index reached the highest in recent years, the town is 10 million new jobs, to control the registered urban unemployment rate at 4.5 percent, more than the intended target in 2007 fell 0.1 Percentage points.
"Economic growth is an uncertain factors exist, and the other is the first employment goals, tasks more weight, which in itself gave employment to the work of some of the difficulties." National Development and Reform Commission employment and income distribution, Deputy Director of the Division Lahoud before Qiao Respect, this year's job more difficult task than in previous years.


Equal employment system has collapsed
The grim employment situation, human resources and Social Security, Labor Science Research Institute said Mo Rong, deputy director, phased, regional, groups of high unemployment will exist for a long time, coupled with enormous labor supply in China's future economy Will continue to face in the course of the total labor supply is greater than the total demand for such a basic pattern.
Wang said German identity: "the short term, employment growth will not achieve much, the key is to resolve the structural contradictions and through information technology services in the supply and demand in an effective way to find convergence on."
This reporter has learned that recently in the National Development and Reform Commission callover at the office "on deepening the reform of income distribution system guidance", one of its content is to transfer surplus rural labor employment and employment of college graduates, people with employment, Demobilized ex-soldiers into the employment of the Manpower Employment, the formation of equal employment of urban and rural laborers of the system.
As a starting point, Qinghua University, China and the World Economic Research Center recently latest issue a report of recommendations for China's current labor market segmentation in the status quo, as the labor market should flow from the start of university graduates, university students launched a nationwide unified The job market.
The topic for Yang Tao in the study found that among China's cross-regional labor flow rate of return is very high, often means a better flow of wages and more suitable jobs, reduce the income gap between regions is very helpful.
Yang Tao, mature market economies need to harmonize the key elements of the market, breaking the labour market policy and inter-city system is the obstacle to the matter sooner or later. But 260 million to resolve labor issues more difficult stock, while each of the several million university students as a pilot, for traffic to a gradual reform is feasible. Therefore, we can start the reunification of the job market for college graduates overall labor market integration as a breakthrough.
At present, the Chinese Ministry of Education and Human and Social Security Ministry has launched a national public service employment college students three-dimensional platform, efforts to fundamentally solve the problem of supply and demand information asymmetry. Human Resources and Social Security Department of Training and Employment Secretary Wang Yadong, deputy director said that people's governments above the county level must set up a public employment service system, the establishment of a public employment service agencies, public employment services to support the funds into the unified budget.


Looking forward to promote entrepreneurship employment
However, solving the employment problem of mixed, the market eventually do the demand for labour.
For a long time, China's economic growth relies mainly on the increase in capital investment, economic growth, leading to the employment decline. Since 2007, China has gradually become entrepreneurs solving the employment problem in an important way.
In China, every one new individual industrial and commercial households, can promote the employment of 2 per add a private enterprise, can be driven 13 people to seek employment. Lahoud, Qiao said, "has been central to the current employment of college graduates into the job planning", will focus on policies to encourage graduates of autonomy and self-employed entrepreneurs.
Human Resources and Social Security Ministry has formed a complete system to support college students venture policy, such as college students want to run small enterprises, administrative and service fees do not have to pay three years. As founder of meager profit of small enterprises, according to the proportion of 20 percent income tax reduction. College students can also apply for small loans, some countries also meager profit item discount, the central government invested 50 per cent. However, the employment hinder entrepreneurship driven mechanism is still obvious shortcomings.
First, the Chinese business service system is not sound serious. In terms of geographical, China's entrepreneurial advice and service personnel are mostly located in large and medium-sized cities, and mainly concentrated in the labor and social security systems of public business services, business services market relatively weak, medium and small cities are still very lack of guidance and business entrepreneurship training.
Second, China can not meet the financing channels and means of financing small businesses, "less urgency, frequency," the demand characteristics. Prior to one pair of 147 enterprises in the survey, not a business venture capital is the source of bank loans. Zouping researcher at the Institute of Finance, the central bank said Block, the central bank recently introduced a row from the tight monetary policy, to the great damage caused by SMEs, venture financing difficulties further intensified. At present, SMEs provide more than 75 percent of urban jobs. Laid-off workers of state-owned enterprises in 80 percent of small and medium enterprises were re-employed. A large portion of migrant workers to work in SMEs.
Third, information services for SMEs to meet the demand. The sample survey, only 17% of SMEs have built their own site, although 52 percent of the enterprises have different levels of information technology applications, but enterprise resource planning (ERP), customer relationship management (CRM), and other core business applications coverage Below 10%.
In view of entrepreneurship driven employment "multiplier effect", recently held in Hangzhou of China in 2008 to promote entrepreneurship driven high-level forum for employment as a signal signs, central ministries and commissions of the joint force began.
It is reported that this year, Human Resources and Social Security Department will conduct business-model cities, some provinces and cities to promote the establishment of the first to perfect the system of five entrepreneurs, organizational and leadership system, a policy support system and entrepreneurial training system, security system services and coordination of various social mobilization The work of the system, which point to all areas, promoting entrepreneurship driven employment work full swing.
Source: 2008 No. 19 of section 296 of the Financial